Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 54510.582380 57767.186192 61031.362859 64545.965242 68220.598530 71946.478411 76007.265622
2024-10-13 49222.299007 54185.714008 59308.741114 64983.113250 71083.581476 77436.418514 84543.605642
2024-10-20 45210.389576 51298.797431 57730.321372 65013.025450 73012.589318 81514.027676 91213.823088
2024-10-27 41950.275526 48839.115493 56259.973702 64819.428733 74390.007675 84731.750761 96721.236687
2024-11-03 40075.847653 47697.691618 56046.524019 65827.959540 76929.294864 89092.627707 103381.408040
2024-11-10 38356.578919 46576.112201 55716.837350 66577.374956 79068.516397 92923.693416 109390.227468
2024-11-17 36644.065998 45338.142869 55143.620450 66946.043888 80687.312817 96100.855076 114613.668549
2024-11-24 34913.199533 43973.642533 54329.557880 66947.698695 81807.633382 98650.709930 119079.016794
2024-12-01 33532.942522 42944.775891 53836.794561 67259.032605 83233.138134 101512.755041 123881.525728
2024-12-08 32136.647867 41825.017578 53172.091744 67307.385714 84299.678502 103921.282301 128134.807397
2024-12-15 31345.615652 41396.677400 53296.778270 68266.263145 86423.747957 107560.805819 133839.782263
2024-12-22 30078.335877 40324.508912 52590.971807 68175.401241 87251.798670 109640.329959 137684.907418
2024-12-29 29454.143618 40041.910066 52848.035634 69267.527491 89534.497829 113497.825077 143720.457145
2025-01-05 28591.113127 39423.314908 52662.050540 69793.485283 91117.170124 116518.167794 148772.538432
2025-01-12 27557.303142 38545.079840 52115.200255 69838.373725 92083.666792 118778.926726 152905.575430
2025-01-19 26475.228094 37562.856927 51399.342671 69636.110756 92715.009183 120611.872928 156509.785381
2025-01-26 26029.818809 37391.538119 51698.494154 70704.628992 94927.905429 124390.338045 162516.368782
2025-02-02 25492.583901 37075.815339 51793.260607 71498.195792 96788.209560 127736.668253 168007.171282
2025-02-09 24814.344269 36546.176709 51588.714217 71888.513544 98125.744628 130430.652093 172698.528368
2025-02-16 24010.903091 35819.640263 51101.663657 71890.270649 98950.596377 132474.966292 176581.657704
2025-02-23 23381.663773 35308.262256 50878.671197 72219.847268 100185.130692 135031.089086 181113.808485
2025-03-02 22673.478295 34664.471366 50458.396577 72271.032151 101045.996002 137108.557796 185046.655224
2025-03-09 22371.811897 34573.743557 50769.967295 73285.975741 103160.967846 140788.870871 191029.757365